Base metals analysts temper calls despite solid aluminium interest – 9 February 2026
A Reuters poll of metals analysts showed aluminium is expected to register meaningful annual gains (around +12% in 2026) among base metals thanks to energy transition and technology demand, though some caution about near-term speculative pullbacks.
Summary :
The very highest copper forecast from 31 analysts is for LME cash metal to average $13,250 per ton in 2026, compared with a current price of $13,283. The median forecast is an average of $11,975 – a record poll high, but a long way short of last month’s melt-up above $14,000.
The highest tin call among 16 forecasts is an average of $47,000, already taken out in the January price spike.
It’s a similar story with both nickel and zinc, while aluminium and lead got to within touching distance of the highest forecasts last month.
The collective view seems to be that January’s super-charged price performance will inevitably generate a reaction in the form of reduced physical buying in what are still industry-rooted markets.
That caution is even more apparent when it comes to 2027.
Only lead is expected to register any price gain to the tune of a modest 3% relative to this year.
Aluminium, copper and nickel prices are expected to be flat year-on-year, while tin and zinc prices are forecast to decline by 4% from 2026 levels.
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